A mere 60 days ago when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
